On the eve of his 100-day honeymoon anniversary, Doug Ford cheated on Ontarians.
Our premier left home to share the love.
For the love of Ford Nation, he went national - abandoning us for a whirlwind tour of Alberta and Saskatchewan late last week. Who better to play prairie populist than the premier “For the People” – all the Canadian people, not just us Ontarians.
Even before whooping it up out West, Ford wended his way East to bask in the adulation of his fellow Tories from far and wide. At a late-summer convention of federal Conservatives in Halifax, the premier from Etobicoke made his national debut.
Halifax was his first flirtation. Calgary and Regina were his latest love-ins, but surely not his last.
Our Ford is on a roll. From his municipal roots to his provincial reincarnation, does Ford Nation have national growth potential?
To predict where he is going, one must ponder where he is coming from.
Ford is the scion of a dynastic political family with Kennedyesque ambitions. His father Doug Sr.’s breakthrough into provincial politics a generation ago presaged younger brother Rob’s victory in the mayoral race of 2010, and Doug Jr.’s own triumph in 2018.
No one fathomed Rob as mayor, nor imagined Doug as premier. Why not envision Prime Minister Ford as the culmination of the family’s destiny?
Ontario’s premier is not merely the most dynastic, but the most dynamic politician in Canada today. That he has connected with voters viscerally along the way is undeniable; that he can sideline the one politician who stands in his way is unpredictable.
No, it is not the incumbent prime minister, Justin Trudeau, who must be overcome. It is the current Conservative leader, Andrew Scheer, who blocks Doug Ford’s path to 24 Sussex Drive.
We shall see. A year from now, Trudeau’s enduring celebrity status may have trumped the little-known Scheer in the 2019 federal election if the Conservative leader fails to rally his base to the cause.
That would make Scheer a lame duck. Even now, Scheer may already be a sitting duck.
Picture this enduring image: As Ontario’s premier worked the hall in Halifax last summer, Conservative groupies asked a bystander to snap souvenir photos, handing their iPhones to an invisible man.
That man was Andrew Scheer, who could be seen faithfully photographing Ford with his selfie fans, overshadowed by his star power. Now fast forward to a post-election federal defeat, where Conservatives conclude that the only surefire way to defeat Trudeau’s star power is with Ford’s fiery fan base.
No premier of Ontario has become prime minister of Canada before, and none has ever ascended to the federal Conservative leadership since George Drew decades ago. But Ford is no ordinary provincial phenomenon.
It is hard to recall another Ontario premier being cheered so lustily and welcomed so warmly as a fellow traveller in the heart of Canada’s oil country. The last two provincial leaders to nurse national ambitions - Dalton McGuinty (briefly) and Bill Davis (perennially), would have been laughed out of town had they tried to pull off Ford’s flirtation with Calgarians.
But when our premier drew a line in their oilsands last week, vowing to annihilate the federal carbon tax, more than 1,500 energized Tories embraced him as if he were one of their own. Amid the Stetsons and occasional “Make America Great Again” baseball caps (most Trump-Ford loyalists were intercepted and persuaded by organizers to reconsider their head gear), Ford felt right at home.
In a historical twist - and hint of future turns - he was welcomed to his new Alberta home away from home by none other than former federal cabinet minister Jason Kenney, leader of the United Conservatives and now the province’s premier-in-waiting. Notwithstanding the bad blood between them – Kenney once called on Rob Ford to step aside because he “brought dishonour to public office and the office of mayor” – he had only glowing words for big brother Doug.
Ontario’s premier is “a man who is a champion of our resource industries and jobs, a great ally of the West, and of Alberta, who is now in our corner.”
Not just in Alberta’s corner, but Saskatchewan’s. The day before in Regina, Ford was feted as a conquering hero when he promised to vanquish the “nasty, nasty job-killing (carbon) tax” - no matter that Ontario’s unemployment rate has dipped to its lowest levels in a generation.
But it was in Halifax that Ford first hinted at the future, while fending off present-day rivals.
At that convention, Scheer was under siege from his erstwhile leadership opponent, Maxime Bernier, who has opened up a new populist pincer movement against him. Ford, of course, could surely stanch the bleeding from the right flank, while getting the blood of the party faithful flowing again - as he did then and there.
“Tonight I also want to speak to those of you outside our province, including the folks watching at home,” he began in Halifax. “I have a message for all of you: Stay strong. Help is on its way!”
In his star turn at the microphone, Ford said all the right things – nice things, of course – about Scheer. But he has a way of killing rivals with kindness (while letting grudges be bygones, as Kenney can attest).
If Scheer should fail to follow Ford’s proven path to victory next year, will Ontario’s premier take over from him as federal Conservative leader?
“As I have always said, a new day has dawned in Ontario – and a new day will dawn in Canada,” Ford promised party delegates.
It was his first but assuredly not his last national speech. Just watch him.
Martin Regg Cohn is a national affairs writer.