Residential construction continues at a brisk pace in Red Deer, with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reporting 62 housing starts last month.
That tally, which included 40 single-detached homes and 22 units in multi-family projects, was up 19 per cent from April 2012, when there were 52 starts.
It brought the four-month total for 2013 to 298, a 58 per cent jump from the 189 residential starts for the January-to-April period of 2012.
During the first four months of this year, there have been 111 single-detached starts and 187 in the multi-family category — up from 85 and 104 respectively a year ago.
Housing starts are up in most of Alberta’s larger cities, with Grande Prairie’s four-month total 84 per cent higher this year than last.
The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo is 77 per cent ahead of last year’s pace, the Edmonton metropolitan area is up 37 per cent, Medicine Hat is 27 per cent higher, and Lethbridge is 26.5 per cent stronger. Only the Calgary metropolitan area is down from 2012, with a 27 per cent drop-off to date.
Canada-wide, the housing market appears to be in decline but has so far avoided the type of crash that could impact the broader economy.
A dip in April was concentrated mostly in Ontario, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, and mostly in the condo market.
“Canadian homebuilders are facing the new reality that the decade-long housing boom has ended, and are retrenching in orderly fashion,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist with BMO Capital Markets.
TD Bank economist Sonya Gulati noted the long-held concerns about Canada’s housing market, particularly from the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of Canada, but said the recent trend should ease some of the fears.
Even when the market was overheating, she said, that was mostly due to the influence of Toronto and Vancouver and not widespread.
But some housing hawks are still not convinced. Scotiabank economist Derek Holt said the softness in April, historically a heavy month for construction, may portend even greater weakness to come.
“To what extent are soft existing home sales spooking developers? That question is more important now that we’re entering prime Canadian construction season,” he said.
Capital Economics’ David Madani said he believes a housing correction is underway, saying the slump in pre-construction condo sales and fewer project launches “indicate that this seemingly mild slowdown will eventually worse.” He warned if he is right, the fall in housing investment will severely constrain economic growth.
Most analysts also see housing as a drag on the economy this year, but in more moderate proportions.
Most, if not all, housing indicators — starts, resales, building permits and prices — have cooled considerably since July 2012 when Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s new tighter regulations for mortgages and lending practices went into effect.
Last month, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney told a parliamentary committee that all indicators were moving in the right direction and that household debt accumulation had stabilized, albeit at an extremely high level of 165 per cent of disposable income.
April starts were on the mark with economist expectations and slightly below the first quarter average.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts was down 2.5 per cent, led by a 3.5 per cent decline in multiple urban starts. Single urban starts remained relatively unchanged from March.
Regionally, starts fell by 41 per cent in Atlantic Canada, 15 per cent in Ontario and six per cent in British Columbia. Offsetting the losses, starts rose by 15 per cent in Quebec and nine per cent in the Prairies.
With files from The Canadian Press.