Mortgage rates to decline following central bank’s rate cut: economists

Canadian homeowners have likely gained a reprieve from an expected increase in mortgage rates this year.

TORONTO — Canadian homeowners have likely gained a reprieve from an expected increase in mortgage rates this year.

Economists say rates will dip slightly in response to the Bank of Canada’s surprise move Wednesday to cut its trend-setting interest rate to 0.75 per cent, from one per cent, to soften the blow of dropping oil prices on the Canadian economy.

“This signals that low interest rates will be with us a while longer,” said Avery Shenfeld, the chief economist at CIBC World Markets, noting that the central bank’s rate cut will likely mean a corresponding 0.25 drop in variable, or floating, mortgage rates.

Fixed-rate mortgages are also likely to see a slight decline, as they follow bond yields, which will move lower in response to the rate cut.

It was anticipated that the Bank of Canada would move to increase its overnight rate later this year due to an improving economy, until crude prices started to slide and dropped below US$50 a barrel.

Phil Soper, president of realtor Royal LePage, said Canadians could be shopping for cheaper mortgages within days.

“It doesn’t take long to react to a policy change like this,” Soper said. “That’s why it’s such a powerful tool.”

A conventional five-year mortgage stands at about 4.79 per cent, according to data from the Bank of Canada.

Decreased mortgage rates are likely to boost sales and prices of homes in Central Canada, including in Toronto’s red-hot property market, where Soper predicts prices could climb by 4.5 to five per cent this year.

“It will be a lift to the industry overall,” Soper said. “However, it will be particularly pronounced in Central Canada, which we believe will see a lift from lower oil prices regardless and, when you add to it the stimulative impact of lower mortgage rates, we should see an uptick in activity.”

However, the rate cut may also spur Canadians, who have been criticized previously by the Bank of Canada for holding record levels of debt, to borrow more money.

“Certainly this isn’t going to discourage anyone from taking on debt,” Shenfeld said.

“But I think in the Bank of Canada’s eyes right now, it’s a lesser of two evils. They’ve shown discomfort with the amount of borrowing Canadians have done, but the economy right now can’t afford to shut the tap off on that if we’re not getting the lift to growth from the energy sector.”

Although cheaper mortgage rates are likely to buoy real estate markets in Central and Atlantic Canada, TD economist Craig Alexander says the impact of oil prices will trump interest rates in Western Canada.

“I think it’s inevitable that you’re going to see a pullback in sales and a softening in price growth in real estate in oil-rich provinces because, at the end of the day, income growth in those provinces is going to be a lot less,” Alexander said.

“It is an economic shock, and real estate markets do reflect local economic conditions.”

In its latest report, Royal LePage predicted home prices in Calgary would grow by 2.4 per cent this year – a slowdown from the 5.5 per cent jump they made last year.

Meanwhile, older Canadians who rely on interest-bearing investments for their income could find themselves squeezed as a result of the central bank’s policy change.

“It will push them into looking at alternative investments that can generate a bit more yield than a straight GIC,” Shenfeld said.

Just Posted

2019 Women of Excellence Awards nominees announced

The nominees were announced in Red Deer Thursday

City watching speed limit debate

Blackfalds, Calgary and Edmonton the latest to consider reduced residential speed limits

Movie shot in Red Deer and Lacombe is nominated for Alberta film award

‘Cor Values’ is up for a Best Feature Rosie

Red Deer developer ordered to replant some of the levelled College Park trees

Some residents don’t believe restoration plans go far enough

Red Deer election forum set for April 11

Presented by Red Deer & District Chamber of Commerce

Local Sports: Queen’s Avery Lajeunesse not afraid to get physical

A year ago Avery Lajeunesse made a commitment to join the RDC… Continue reading

Seniors: Exposing the hype surrounding supplements

Do we need dietary supplements as we age? Do these supplements actually… Continue reading

Eight warning signs you won’t finish college

Forty per cent of students who enrol in a four-year college don’t… Continue reading

Photos: Deer spotted in Red Deer

Spring has sprung. One Advocate reader has been seeing a herd of… Continue reading

Ken Johnston competes in Sheraton Celebrity Dance Off

Sheraton Celebrity Dance Off will be held April 13

Oil field worker to show off his moves on the dance floor

Sheraton Celebrity Dance Off will be held April 13

Radio show host is Sheraton Celebrity dancer in Red Deer

VINNIE TAYLOR You may have heard Vinnie Taylor on the radio in… Continue reading

Dancing dentist of Innisfail

Sheraton Celebrity Dance Off will be held April 13

Most Read