TORONTO — It’s certainly been a while since the Arcade Fire has been cast as the underdog.
The Montreal rockers’ third album, The Suburbs, surfed a tide of critical superlatives to hit No. 1 on the chart in countries around the world upon its release last summer. Headlining gigs at Madison Square Garden followed, as well as a memorable performance on Saturday Night Live and the announcement of more high-profile gigs, including a marquee spot at this spring’s Coachella Festival.
The little band that could suddenly didn’t seem so little. Three nominations at this weekend’s Grammys followed, including a nod for the evening’s top prize: album of the year.
However, up against the likes of leading nominee Eminem, Katy Perry, Lady Gaga and country stars Lady Antebellum, Arcade Fire once again look every bit the upstart challenger — “the David among Goliaths,” as Entertainment Weekly called them in a recent issue.
But the band isn’t having it. They think they have a shot at winning.
“We definitely have a chance,” said multi-instrumentalist Will Butler. “I actually looked at the London bookie numbers and we have nine-to-two odds of winning.
“They take their gambling pretty seriously. I checked when we were first nominated and we had a 10-to-one shot. I guess we’re on the move.”
That has certainly been the case for the past year, one in which Arcade Fire cemented its status as one of the top rock bands in the world.
For the record, as of Tuesday, Sportsbook.com listed Arcade Fire as having a four-to-one shot at claiming the album of the year award, tied with Gaga. Eminem, the evening’s top nominee with 10 nods, is the favourite. Perry and Lady Antebellum are both listed as long shots.
Other Canadians nominated for Grammys at this Sunday’s show include Toronto rapper Drake, who has four nods, Neil Young, Michael Buble, 16-year-old pop sensation Justin Bieber and Fredericton soprano Measha Brueggergosman.
There are Canadians nominated in more obscure categories, too, including Michael J. Fox, Alex Cuba, Melanie Fiona, Marc-Andre Hamelin, Gage Averill and Darcy James Argue.
For Arcade Fire — who received three nominations in years past but never won — the nod is simply the latest indication of just how far the band has come.
Each of the band’s three records has been met with near-universal critical praise, and each has sold well.
But The Suburbs was different. The record opened at No. 1 in Canada, the U.K., Norway, Ireland, Belgium, and even the United States, where the band reached a new height. In fact, while Arcade Fire’s popularity grew around the world with the release of The Suburbs, the growth was most pronounced Stateside.
“Whereas in the rest of the world, it’s gone up a quarter-notch . . . in the States, it’s gone up past a notch,” Butler said.
“We’re nominated for album of the year, which wouldn’t even have been conceivable with the other albums.”
And part of the reason for that might lie in the fact that The Suburbs simply sounds more grown up.
The band followed its tense, noisy sophomore effort, Neon Bible, by subtly tweaking its sound, incorporating simpler song structures, more immediate earworm hooks and even slightly more restrained vocals from singer Win Butler, whose voice rarely breaks from its hinges the way it used to.
And the album is as accessible as it is diverse. From the irrepressible rush of first single Ready to Start nominated for best rock performance by a duo or group with vocals) to the new-wave giddiness of Sprawl II (Mountains Beyond Mountains), the 16 songs that comprise The Suburbs are intricately crafted and melodic, and thus unlikely to alienate the Grammy voters who tend to skew greyer than the Arcade Fire’s typically forward-thinking devotees.
“In a certain way, this is very traditional rock music,” said Entertainment Weekly music critic Leah Greenblatt. “It’s sort of unprocessed and ambitious and cohesive in a way that rock albums used to be made.”
“I think a lot of people who are a little bit older could put on the Arcade Fire album and connect to it.”
Still, many observers are hesitant to discuss Arcade Fire’s chances in album of the year in overly positive terms.
“It’s a tough call,” said Alan Cross, the host of the syndicated radio program “The Ongoing History of New Music” and curator of exploremusic.com.
“Depending on how the academy votes, the votes could be split in so many different ways because you have an indie-rock artist, you have a very popular hip-hop artist, you have a country artist and two super celebrity pop artists.
“Could the vote be split, let’s say, between Eminem and Lady Gaga to the point where the Arcade Fire could come up the middle and win? I think that’s the way to look at it. They may not be the favourite of the majority of the academy, but they may end up getting through just because the votes will be split so far apart.”
But Greenblatt, for one, thinks that scenario is unlikely.
“They’re up against such behemoths of pop music,” she said. “I would like to see them win, but it’s just such a tough field.”
“Arcade Fire has done phenomenally well, they topped a ton of year-end lists here Stateside, but Merge (Records) is a tiny label run by a husband-and-wife couple. They’re not taking out huge ads in the trade papers. They’re not glad-handing all over L.A. for the month before the awards.
“They don’t have this huge corporation behind them that’s sort of entrenched in Grammyness.”
Instead, Greenblatt thinks the album of the year award is likely Eminem’s to lose.
The 38-year-old Detroit rapper leads with 10 nominations heading into the show (followed by the suddenly ubiquitous songwriter Bruno Mars, who has seven), and Greenblatt suspects the 53rd Grammys could quickly turn into the Eminem show.
The resurgent rapper had the best-selling album of 2010 and, well, Grammy always loves a comeback story.
“It’s almost like whoever was up against (”Inglourious Basterds“ star) Christoph Waltz last year for best supporting actor (at the Oscars). Everyone put on their tux and showed up and smiled for the camera and clapped and didn’t even bother to write a speech.
“There are those years where you feel like there’s the gimme, and I’m not saying Eminem’s going to win every one, but I think both of his hands will be full. He’s going to have to save a few seatbelts in his limo.”
And then there’s the Bieber question.
The mop-topped Stratford, Ont., native was among the most prominent pop stars of 2010. Armed with a fanatical following, Bieber saw his debut full-length “My World 2.0” top the charts while his freshly scrubbed visage and sugar-sweet tunes seemed downright impossible to escape.
He’s up for best new artist (a category in which he’s competing against Drake, as well as indie darlings Mumford & Sons and Florence & the Machine) and best pop vocal album. But Grammy insiders expect some broken hearts amongst his millions of admirers.
“It’s maybe a bit precious for everybody to vote for him,” Cross said.
Added Greenblatt: “Unless all the (voters’) eight-year-old daughters are stealing their ballots, it’s unlikely to me that he’ll win.”
And yet, whether any of the nominated Canuck artists actually manage to bring home a trophy might not matter that much. They will still get to bask in the shining spotlight offered by the show, with Drake, Bieber and Arcade Fire all scheduled to perform during the broadcast.
Arcade Fire actually isn’t likely to go home empty-handed — the band appears a lock to win for alternative album of the year, at least (“They should just go ahead and UPS it to them right now,” Greenblatt jokes). But either way, some suggest that the album of the year nomination and broadcast performance might be enough of a boon to the band even if they fail to earn much hardware.
“Of course it would be nice to have that little guy on their mantle, but it could be so rewarding just to be recognized and seen by these millions of people,” Greenblatt said. “This has bought them a place at the big kids’ table. And so now (their performance) just has to be amazing.
“No pressure.”
In fact, Butler is still stunned by the nomination. In trying to wrap his head around the honour, he thought back to one of his favourite bands from his teenage years, Radiohead, who were nominated for album of the year three times, though they never won the award.
“I remember when Radiohead got nominated for album of the year, and I was really excited. We’re not as big as Radiohead, but I can understand it better when I think of it that way.”
Just like that British art-rock quintet, Arcade Fire seems the favourite nominee for many music fans whose tastes divert from the usual Top 40 fare feted by the big Grammy categories.
Still, though Butler appreciates that many fans might tune in to the telecast in the hopes of seeing their indie heroes conquer the glitzy show, he emphasizes that it isn’t really worth getting upset if the band doesn’t win.
“At the Oscars, you get excited when your favourite actor wins, and if some random actor wins, you might get upset for like 30 seconds, and then you’re like, ’Whatever,’ and you move on.
“It’s not worth getting that mad about.”