Minutes before ATB Financial chief economist Mark Parsons was to offer his take on the global trade war, the situation changed again.
U.S. President Donald Trump, whose tariff policies are as changeable as central Alberta weather, lurched in another direction again on Wednesday. In his latest flip-flop, Trump called for a 90-day pause on his so-called "reciprocal tariffs" for many nations, with China conspicuously excluded.
Parsons' advice to financial folk: Don't check your investment folios every day or devour every Trump social media post. Trump's going to be Trump and he too shall pass.
While Canada has been spared the worst in the ongoing tariff tumult, Trump's trade policies have many worried.
"We are in a period of heightened uncertainty. We are at levels we've never seen before," Parsons told a Red Deer District Chamber luncheon crowd at Red Deer Resort and Casino.
There is plenty of damage tariffs could do to this nation. U.S. importers could pull back on Canadian imports, inflation could rise, the Canadian dollar could further weaken and economic growth could give way to recession.
Despite it all, Parsons believes Canada remains well-positioned to not only weather the financial storm but perhaps emerge in a stronger position globally.
Canada's biggest challenge is to encourage more investment. That means cutting through red tape and getting big projects approved and removing inter-provincial trade barriers domestically. At the same time, Canada must scour the globe for business opportunities and create the capacity to tap into those international markets by building pipelines and other infrastructure to support Canadian exports.
The Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion to West Coast terminals is proof of the benefits of building infrastructure geared to exports. Before the pipeline was completed, almost no Canadian crude oil went to Asia. From May 2024, when the pipeline came online, to the end of last year, $3.5 billion worth of oil was exported to Asia.
Propane exports have also surged with expansion in the works to boost exports further.
"So, we have to think of ways of how to get our resources to market because the world wants it," he said. "What that does is it checks a lot of boxes. It improves investment, it improves productivity, (and) it increases our exports.
"The question is, is that what we're going to do or not."
Data centres and the massive energy generation that will be required is another opportunity, especially in Alberta with its abundant natural gas resources.
Tourism is expected to be another growing market as Canadians wary of Trump's economic and immigration sabre-rattling look to home for vacations.
"I think you're going to see a really busy tourism season."
As for Alberta, the economy is expected to soften because of a U.S.economic slowdown and falling oil prices.
"But we do expect Alberta to out-perform the current environment. One of the reasons is persistent population growth."
Alberta is expected to add another 220,000 people in the coming year and the population will likely top five million within the next two months.
"That's absolutely remarkable," he said. "People continue to move to Alberta in droves."
Affordability, including housing, a solid job market and increasing opportunities to work remotely are driving that growth. And while unemployment numbers remain high, particularly in Red Deer Region, it has more to do with a fast-growing population overtaking the number of jobs available than as a sign of a weak economy.
"In Red Deer, you had really strong employment growth last year, but you also had really strong population growth. That's one of the reasons your unemployment rate is still really high."
Red Deer is expected to continue to grow faster than the provincial average, although not as quickly as Calgary, Edmonton and Grande Prairie.
The city also has not fully bounced back from the loss of oil and gas services and manufacturing capacity during the steep downturn of a decade ago.
That gap is being filled in, lately by growth public service investment, such as the $1.8 billion Red Deer Regional Hospital Centre expansion and continuing investment in Red Deer Polytechnic.
"There is a lot of growth in those service-based industries. But there are so many changes in your labour market it becomes a bit of a skills mismatch issue. We have jobs. We don't necessarily have people for those jobs."
Another positive sign for the area is P&H Milling Group's $241 million flour mill under construction in Springbrook and expected to be in operation in fall 2026.
Parsons sees huge opportunities for agri-food investment in Alberta. "We're seeing record levels of food manufacturing in the province."
Overall, Alberta, despite its challenges, is expected to see 1.5 per cent growth this year, three times the national projection of 0.5 per cent.
"I think as a long-term play, Alberta looks really, really solid."
