OTTAWA — The next quarter-century in Canada could see the emergence of a much older, greyer population, with seniors expected to outnumber children for the first time ever, says a study.
Statistics Canada’s projections reveal that the overall population could exceed 40 million by 2036. The number of Canadians could grow from 33.7 million to 40.1 million under the low-growth scenario and 47.7 million in the high-growth scenario.
Because of the boomers, the ranks of those entering their golden years are expected to swell significantly. Projections indicate the number of seniors will be between 9.9 million and 10.9 million in 2036 — more than double the level of last year.
If the projections pan out, the agency said the number of seniors would surpass the number of children aged 14 or younger between 2015 and 2021.
The agency also expects the population’s median age range to climb to between 42 and 45 years, compared with the current median of 39.5.
“The population aging is not really a surprise,” Statistics Canada analyst Patrice Dion said in an interview. “In 1960, eight per cent of the Canadian population were aged 65 and over, and in 2009 this proportion is 14 per cent.”
“There was already an increase in the past, now this increase will likely accelerate in the future,” he added, saying the proportion of seniors will be in the range of 23 and 25 per cent in 2036.
The reason for the demographic shift is because Canada is experiencing low fertility levels at the same time as the huge cohort of boomers is aging, Dion said. He noted that by 2031, all the boomers will be at least 65 years old. From that year onward, Statistics Canada said the aging of the population would continue, albeit at a much less rapid pace.