OTTAWA — The embattled long-gun registry has some fresh ammo with the support of a key MP and a poll suggesting public opinion is hardening against Conservative attempts to scrap it.
Sudbury New Democrat MP Glenn Thibeault announced Tuesday that he is no longer backing a Tory private member’s bill that has pitted urban voters and politicians against their rural counterparts.
He and 11 of his NDP colleagues had backed the bill to dismantle the registry, helping to ensure the proposed legislation stayed alive in the minority Parliament. Thibeault followed in the footsteps of Charlie Angus in switching sides.
His about-face came as a new poll by The Canadian Press Harris-Decima revealed that support for the gun registry was on the rise late last month, even before the RCMP released a favourable evaluation of the program.
In the Aug. 26-29 survey, 48 per cent of respondents said it would be a bad idea to get rid of the registry, up from 42 per cent in April and 41 per cent last November.
About 38 per cent thought the registry should be scrapped, down from 45 per cent in April and 46 per cent last November.
But neither polls nor politics are stopping the Conservatives.
“It’s still very close,” said Candice Hoeppner, the Tory MP who sponsored the bill.
MPs are to vote Sept. 22 on whether to support a Liberal motion that would squash the bill for good. Hoeppner figures she needs nine votes from opposition members to keep her quest afloat.
She said she’s disappointed with Thibeault’s switch, but hopes she will be able to persuade a couple of Liberal MPs to stay away from the vote — and keep most of the NDP MPs who have supported her in the past.
Both the NDPers who have withdrawn their support for Hoeppner have blamed Tory tactics for driving them away.
“When I originally supported the bill, it was to send it to committee so we could amend it,” Thibeault said. “But there were too many parliamentary games going on. We couldn’t get any amendments.”
After a summer of listening to heated Conservative rhetoric on the issue, Thibeault decided to stick with party leader Jack Layton to vote to keep the registry and work for improvements to bridge the divide between urban and rural Canadians.
“I will not support the fear mongering rhetoric of the Conservatives or the empty promises of the Liberals,” Thibeault told supporters in Sudbury, Ont., flanked by regional police authorities and executives from the local hospital and unions.
Hoeppner, who is driving the bill to scrap the registry, makes no apologies for her campaign.
“I recognize I’m up against some well-organized, well-financed, politically motivated organizations,” she said.
Police chiefs have endorsed the registry. And at the end of August, the RCMP released an evaluation of the program, finding that while it needs some major improvements, it does save lives.
While Canadian public opinion is swinging somewhat in favour of keeping the registry, the shift is not big, nor is it entrenched, said Doug Anderson, senior vice-president of Harris-Decima.
Although 48 per cent said keeping the registry would be a good idea, only 36 per cent said they thought the program actually helped reduce crime, he pointed out.
All three major parties believe they stand to win or lose popularity over the gun registry issue.
The Conservatives are eyeing up to eight mainly rural seats held by opposition members. They are touring vulnerable seats and campaigning actively in rural areas.
And the Liberals said Tuesday they are using the gun-control issue to target a handful of urban seats held by the NDP. They launched a website and fund-raising campaign accusing Layton of failing to take a firm stand. They also accused Conservatives of indirectly supporting the gun lobby.
For pollster Anderson, however, public opinion is in flux and is difficult to understand on the gun control issue — making political points hard to score.
“This is a tricky one for anybody to turn into a clear victory,” he said.
The shift in support for the registry came mainly among women, Ontarians, people over the age of 50, and those earning between $60,000 and $100,000 a year.
The omnibus telephone poll of 1,000 people has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.