Alberta’s NDP, led by Rachel Notley, currently holds a three-point lead over Premier Jason Kenney and the incumbent United Conservative Party, according to a recent study by the Angus Reid Institute. (File photo by The Canadian Press)

Alberta’s NDP, led by Rachel Notley, currently holds a three-point lead over Premier Jason Kenney and the incumbent United Conservative Party, according to a recent study by the Angus Reid Institute. (File photo by The Canadian Press)

NDP holds slight lead in vote intention over UCP: study

Alberta’s NDP holds a three-point vote intention advantage over the incumbent United Conservative Party, according to a recent study.

This represents the first time the NDP have led in vote intent since 2015, says a study released Friday by the Angus Reid Institute.

“One of the keys to the NDP’s success in 2015 was winning in and around Calgary,” said the Angus Reid Institution study.

“Though at the time the party had benefitted from vote-splitting between the Wildrose Party and Progressive Conservatives, Rachel Notley and her team won nine of the 12 seats in central Calgary and were competitive in the Calgary suburbs.

“Now, the NDP hold a nine-point advantage in Calgary, alongside a considerable lead in their more traditional support base of Edmonton.”

Forty one per cent of those surveyed said they would support the NDP, while 38 per cent favoured the UCP. Another 10 per cent chose Alberta Party and 11 per cent picked ‘other party.’

UCP support among men has diminished since the last election, according to the study. Premier Jason Kenney’s party still leads by a small margin among male voters, but trails women and those under 35 years old.

“While an election is still two years away, vote retention appears to be an important theme at the halfway mark of the UCP term. Close to one-in-three (29 per cent) 2019 UCP voters have gone elsewhere, while the NDP has retained 96 per cent of its support.”

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Feb. 26 to March 3, among a representative randomized sample of 5,004 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid forum.

The study also found that while a majority of Albertans continued to say no to the prospect of a provincial sales tax, most would-be NDP voters would support it.

Currently, three-in-five (62 per cent) say the province should not introduce any form of PST. Given that Premier Jason Kenney has previously stated that the PST would not be implemented without a referendum, the policy seems unlikely to be introduced under the UCP.

However, 38 per cent of Albertans say they would support a tax at various levels, from one per cent to more than five per cent. Two-thirds of those who would vote for Rachel Notley’s party if an election were held say they would support some version of the tax.

To read the study, visit www.angusreid.org.



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