Expect a wetter summer, with normal temperatures, says Environment Canada

Expect a wetter summer, with normal temperatures, says Environment Canada

Long-range summer forecast hard to predict and only right about half the time

Central Albertans can expect normal temperatures, but more rain, according to Environment Canada’s seasonal forecast.

“The forecast right now is for northern Alberta to have a cooler-than-normal summer, and southern Alberta (which includes central Alberta) to have a near-normal summer in terms of temperature,” said meteorologist Sara Hoffman on Friday.

The average temperature in the summer is 14.8 C, when combining both highs and lows.

For precipitation, southern and central Alberta are expected to register more than the usual 260 millimetres that falls from June 1 to the end of August, according to the forecast.

But before you get ready to curse the weather gods, Hoffman concedes that predicting seasonal weather patterns — especially for summer — is tricky.

“I want to add the caveat that our historical skill for this time frame… for northern Alberta is not statistically higher than chance,” said Hoffman. “So, take it with a large grain of salt.”

That means the forecasting is accurate — at best — 40 per cent of the time.

Southern and central Alberta have been a little easier to predict, with forecasts correct 40 to 55 per cent of the time.

So, there is plenty of room for optimism for sun worshippers and the glass-half-full crowd that the meteorologists will be off the mark.

Hoffman said Canadian summers are particularly hard to predict.

“We have a lot more skill in other seasonal forecasts.”

A lot of it has to do with the numerous weather models that are used. They do not do as well predicting our warmest season based on the available inputs.

While it’s always difficult to predict weather months into the future, this year is especially challenging because there are no strong climate oscillations, such as an El Nino or La Nina.

El Nino typically causes milder-than-normal winters and springs in western, northwestern and central Canada. La Nina is associated with colder-than-usual winters on the Prairies.

AccuWeather released its seasonal forecast for Canada last week. According to their projections, Alberta and B.C. are in store for a warmer- and drier-than-usual summer.

Meanwhile, enjoy the weather we have now. The average high at this time of year is 19 C, and Saturday’s predicted high of 27 C will blow past that.

Sunday will be warm too, at 25 C, but there is a 60 per cent chance of daytime showers. Monday is back to near average with 20 C forecast.



pcowley@reddeeradvocate.com

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Weather

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. Deena Hinshaw, reported an additional 1,307 COVID-19 cases Tuesday. (Photo by Chris Schwarz/Government of Alberta)
Central zone up to 1,249 active COVID-19 cases

Red Deer sits at 257 active COVID-19 cases

Mayor
Mayor Veer appointed as Honorary Lieutenant-Colonel

Red Deer Mayor Tara Veer has been appointed an Honorary Lieutenant-Colonel by… Continue reading

Const. Jason Tress
Mountie testifies another RCMP officer sexually assaulted her at 2012 party

Former Mountie on trial for sexual assault in connection with incident in northwestern Alberta

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leaves the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on Monday, Nov. 30, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang
Conservatives push for parliamentary committee study into failed vaccine deal

OTTAWA — The federal Conservatives are calling for a parliamentary committee to… Continue reading

(Black Press file photo).
Pregancy Care Centre seeks support through online fundraiser

The annual banquet was cancelled, due to the pandemic

Idyllic winter scenes are part of the atmosphere of the holiday season, and are depicted in many seasonal movies. How much do you know about holiday movies? Put your knowledge to the test. (Pixabay.com)
QUIZ: Test your knowledge of holiday movies and television specials

The festive season is a time for relaxing and enjoying some seasonal favourites

A cleaner wipes a glass panel at Toronto's Eaton Centre Shopping mall on Saturday, March 21, 2020. The national statistics office will say this morning how much the domestic economy bounced back in the third quarter of the year. The Canadian economy suffered its worst three-month stretch on record in the second quarter as the economy came to a near halt in April before starting to recover in May and June. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young
Consumer helps fuel third-quarter economic rebound as households resume spending

Consumer helps fuel third-quarter economic rebound as households resume spending

A Suncor logo is shown at the company's annual meeting in Calgary on May 2, 2019.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
Suncor Energy increases spending, oil production guidance for 2021

Suncor Energy increases spending, oil production guidance for 2021

Imperial Oil logo at the company's annual meeting in Calgary on April 28, 2017. Shares in Imperial Oil Ltd. are rising after it announced late Monday it would take a writedown of up to $1.2 billion on Canadian assets it doesn't think it will ever develop. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
Imperial Oil to write off up to $1.2 billion in Alberta natural gas assets

Imperial Oil to write off up to $1.2 billion in Alberta natural gas assets

The Canadian dollar coin is displayed next to the US dollar Friday, January 30, 2015 in Montreal. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson
S&P/TSX composite gets boost to start December after strong November rally

S&P/TSX composite gets boost to start December after strong November rally

Dustin Mitchell (Coats) is wanted in relation to Nov. 25 homicide. (Photo courtesy of Red Deer RCMP)
Man wanted in homicide investigation still at large

Dustin Mitchell (Coats) wanted in relation to Nov. 25 homicide

Toronto police respond to an incident at St. Michael’s College School, in Toronto, Nov. 19, 2018. The trial of a teen accused of sexually assaulting two students at a prestigious Toronto high school is set to resume today. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Tijana Martin
Trial resumes for teen accused in St. Michael’s College School sex assault case

Defence lawyers for a teen accused of sexually assaulting two students at… Continue reading

Minister of Health Patty Hajdu responds to a question during question period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Monday, Nov. 30, 2020. The Trump administration is keeping silent about Canada blocking its plan to import prescription drugs from north of the border. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
Trump admin silent after Hajdu pushes back on U.S. plan to raid Canada’s drug cabinet

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Trump administration is keeping silent about Canada blocking… Continue reading

Most Read