In the first of what is sure to be many battles over the coming years, those who believe in Alberta as an independent nation lost a decisive battle.
The UCP handed the Republican Party of Alberta a swift butt kicking in the Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills byelection on Monday – in what many proclaimed to be "separatist territory" (mostly because Gord Kesler won a seat running for the Western Canada Concept in 1982, the first separatist party to win a seat outside Quebec since the 1870s).
RPA leader Cam Davies ran a decent campaign. He was passionate and explained his ideas for a separate Alberta. It didn't matter. In the heartland of folks who don't believe Alberta is getting a fair deal from confederation, the former UCP MLA finished third behind the much-maligned Alberta NDP. And most people in rural Alberta HATE the Alberta NDP with a fiery passion.
UCP candidate Tara Sawyer won 61.1 per cent of the vote, compared to 17 per cent for the RPA. An underrated aspect of this victory, I think, is the loyalty of rural Albertans to the UCP. Danielle Smith won 95 per cent support in her last leadership review and is wildly popular. These constituents saw a hand-picked candidate from the Premier to replace a very popular MLA and they jumped behind her.
But it's also more complicated than that.
According to a recent Janet Brown Opinion Research survey, 38 per cent of rural Albertans would vote yes to separate in a referendum, compared to 28 per cent in the province as a whole.
This matters because I think there's a distinct difference when the rubber hits the road in relation to separation. When the time comes to mark an X on a ballot, there just isn't the appetite for separation because of the laundry list of unanswered questions.
It's an idea that sounds appealing. It sounds enticing because of the message that has been consistently fed to Albertans for years, that they have got a raw deal in confederation and something drastic needs to change for that to improve.
And you can't fault people who are struggling for looking for hope. And separation, in theory, provides hope. It provides "more" freedom and "less" taxes and government intervention. More of the "principles" that Alberta was founded upon. Those are ideas. Those aren't principles or laws that you can build a constitution on. They are fundamental pieces, but not the entire puzzle of how an independent nation could function outside confederation, while still maintaining some principles of that confederation (like a passport, access to national parks, airports, oil and gas revenue that uses nationally owned pipelines to get to market, etc.).
And that all sounds great! In theory. Or on paper. But it just doesn't match up with the reality of a land-locked province separating from a confederation that they joined in good faith in 1905.
There has been separatist sentiments in Alberta for more than 40 years, but the seeds are much more ripe for sowing now. The ability to reach people in larger numbers is greater than it ever was and to divide neighbours against each other is easier than in 1982. It allows people to get thousands and thousands of shares on separatist idealism social media posts that aren't always grounded in fact. It creates an illusion, an appealing one that Alberta would be better off without the benefits of confederation, without considering the long-term consequences of what separation would mean.
It creates the illusion that the idea is immensely popular, more popular than the folks who are passionate Canadians, as much as Albertans. Those people just aren't as loud about it right now.
And that's why just a few months ago, I called for a vote on separation. A clear and concise referendum question and if the majority support staying in the confederation, the province can move forward united in the belief that we still want to be a part of a united Canada, but want more respect from Ottawa.
Which is a completely fair and legitimate demand!
The separatists had their opening salvo and it's clear the shots weren't in sync.
They'll need to play a smoother tune in the months to come if they want anything close to a victory when Alberta does eventually have a referendum on separation.
Byron Hackett is the Managing Editor of the Red Deer Advocate and a Regional Editor for Black Press Media.
