On Monday, before heading home from work, I started to notice an unnerving similarity to the 2016 election. There was so much buzz and positivity surrounding U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. With all the celebrity endorsements, decent polling, and a seemingly united party, what could possibly go wrong? That was the same sentiment when the democrats underestimated Trump and the people's desire to elect him over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and albeit in different circumstances this time around, it felt like Trump was getting enough credit for his ability to convince voters he was the right choice.
Trump is a demagogue. He is a convicted felon who has been impeached twice and incited an insurrection against the U.S. government. He has consistently refused to accept the results of the 2020 election and plans a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. He's called for the murder and jailing of his opponents and reporters.
He is an awful human being.
None of that mattered to 70 million Americans on Tuesday. Trump won in a landslide, winning the popular vote and the Electoral College.
What mattered was Trump led a strong economy from 2016-2020 and people in America are struggling right now. With high cost of living and inflation being the number 1 issue for voters in America, the people chose not to support the incumbent party which in their view led them to this place.
In the end, Harris was too connected to the current administration and wasn't able to shed the public opinion that she was at least in part to blame for the strife that America faces today.
And people in Canada are quick to say, who cares about their election, it isn't our country or our president. Which is true. But this election result will have far reaching impacts in Canada.
If it wasn't already a sure thing, the result in the U.S. all but guaranteed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals will lose the next election, likely a majority to the Conservatives. Americans showed that the economy and struggles to make ends meet are the number one issue and the incumbent party who oversaw a country that went in that direction have no chance.
In Alberta, Trump's victory could land in several different ways. On one hand, Trump is likely to ramp up domestic oil production, which will reduce the global price. Considering Alberta's 2024 budget projections are based on $74 a barrel and led the premier to suggest that the province could face a deficit if prices are lower.
One potential positive for the provincial economy, Trump could potentially revive talks to build the Keystone XL pipeline, which he was bullish on in 2016. Biden revoked the pipeline's permit in 2021, and TC Energy abandoned the project shortly after.
Trump has said he will impose sweeping tariffs on imports to the U.S., which could be a disaster for Canada. They are Canada's largest trading partner.
If Trump decides to support Russia in the war with Ukraine, which he's mused about plenty on the campaign trail, that could impact the economic situation here in Alberta as well. If he intervenes in the conflict between Palestine and Israel, there could also be massive global implications as well as a significant impact here in Canada.
If Trump does land on mass deportations of illegal immigrants, where will those people end up? Will Canada see an influx of asylum seekers like it did in 2017?
According to the data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), irregular arrivals rose from 2,434 in 2016 to 20,593 in 2017, with most arriving by land in Quebec.
If Trump lets RFK "go wild" health care, like he has claimed, will those impacts be felt in Canada? RFK has already claimed he will direct the EPA to take fluoride out of the water in many states and has mused about changes to vaccines.
Trump seems to be content to leave abortion decisions up to individual states, which in large part distanced himself from much of the republican party. How that change reverberates through conservative movements remains to be seen. Because there seems to be a rising sentiment to restrict access to abortions in America and it's vital we make sure that doesn't happen here. Women should have complete autonomy over decisions related to their bodies. Full-stop.
While all those macro-level policies and changes will impact society, at a micro level, there is significant concern among women, immigrants, and LGBTQ+ people that their world is about to get a lot more dangerous and a lot more unsure. These are our friends and fellow citizens and they worry about what a new president means for their rights.
I have very few encouraging words or positive sentiments as a result of this election, but I hope that at the very least, as a society, we can come together and find a way to support ALL people, not just those who are part of a certain demographic.
Byron Hackett is the Managing Editor of the Red Deer Advocate and a Regional Editor for Black Press Media in Central Alberta.
