We're just a week in Donald Trump's presidency and for those who enjoy the relatively chaos-less days of Joe Biden's U.S. presidency, it's clear we're on a different path here.
It's equal parts terrifying and much-watch television, a real-life version of The Apprentice without the funny taglines.
And certainly, you can try and ignore it. The loud calls of "but we're in Canada, this doesn't impact us" are out there. But American news funnels into our society and their policies impact our day-to-day lives, whether you want to deny it or not.
And it's certainly never a dull moment with the Narcissist-In-Chief at the helm.
Will he or won't he nail Canada with 25 per cent tariffs is the topic of de jour on our side of the border, and it's almost a daily flip-flop. Can't blame even those keeping a close eye on it for losing track of the score at this point.
Even earlier this week alone it was no tariffs but be careful, shortly followed by tariffs for sure on Feb. 1, followed by just a few days later telling OPEC they need to lower oil prices and the only way Canada can avoid tariffs is if they become a U.S. state.
I don't fault you for asking if he's moving the goalposts here because a few months ago, he said that as long as we clean up the border and keep up our NATO commitment, he won't levy tariffs against Canada.
For all his nonsensical, diet coke-infused two am social media drivel, Trump loves to stick to one tried, tested and true tactic. It's called anchoring, one of the negotiation tactics he's used in the business world for the last three decades. He lays it out in his book, Art of the Deal and yet we still all get mesmerized and confused by it when it happens.
Anchoring "is a cognitive bias that puts undue importance on an initial datapoint, the anchor, and causes subsequent decisions and judgements to be determined relative to the anchor point."
It's exactly what he's doing with the "Make Canada A State" stuff.
Everyone is fixated on that and the 25 per cent tariffs, when in reality all he wants is to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, which became the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement under Trump in 2020. He always wants a better deal for America, and despite agreeing to that deal five years ago, he believes he can get more for the U.S. this time around. And has to in order the help the U.S. economy recover from a down period.
It's not to say he won't hit Canada with tariffs, as the U.S. did on Canadian steel in 2018, causing a massive hit to our economy.
Exports of steel products to the United States decreased significantly immediately following the implementation of US tariffs, declining 37.8 per cent in June 2018, before rebounding partially in July (+14.5 per cent).
While monthly export movements varied for the remainder of the tariff period, the net effect was a decline, as the value of exports in May 2019 was at its lowest level in almost 10 years, according to Statistics Canada.
This new tariff would essentially blow up the Canadian energy industry and take Alberta's budget projections for a ride, which are largely tied to commodity prices.
And there's a real fear of those tariffs threats in Canada.
A new poll commissioned by the Canadian Labour Congress (CLC) shows Canadians are seriously concerned with the economic and political risks posed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
GQR Canada said in a poll of 1,500 eligible voters, that eight in ten Canadians believe American tariffs on Canadian goods will increase the cost of living and nine in ten believe it will have a negative impact on Canada-US relations.
"Donald Trump's reckless threats are a direct attack on workers on both sides of the border", said Bea Bruske, President of the Canadian Labour Congress. "Canadians are rightfully alarmed and expect strong leadership from their governments to protect their jobs and defend our industries from these harmful policies."
Trump is praying on those fears, even saying Thursday to the World Economic Forum.
"We have a tremendous deficit with Canada. We're not going to have that anymore… And if you're a state, we won't have a deficit. We won't have to tariff you…," Trump said. "Canada has been very tough to deal with over the years... we don't need their lumber because we have our own forests...we don't need their oil and gas. We have more than anybody."
It's in Canada's best interest to be wary of these threats, but not cower to Trump's demands. He'll continue to ramble and hold his one (sorry for the pun) trump card close to his chest until it's clear Canada isn't bluffing. I think concern over an "invasion" in Canada is overblown and fearmongering. It's a tactic; it's a game like everything is for Trump.
But the U.S. does need Canada, and any action taken to threaten our free trade agreement needs to be met with equal action. I hope our leaders stand firm and don't give in during this pivotal moment in our country's history.
Byron Hackett is the Managing Editor of the Red Deer Advocate and Central Alberta Regional Editor for Black Press Media.