It’s too soon to tell what damage the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 will do to the physical or economic health of Canadians.
But all signs are pointing already to a large, looming morale crisis, which politicians are going to have to struggle to contain in the days and weeks ahead. Just when Canadians were starting to plan holiday gatherings and winter trips to sunnier climes - and a long-awaited return to normal - the threat looms again of more lockdowns and renewed travel restrictions.
So what does the political class have left in its arsenal – after nearly two years of this pandemic - to head off what could be the biggest wave yet of COVID-19 fatigue?
New polling by Abacus research shows that COVID-19 anxiety has skyrocketed in the past few days, fuelled merely by the emergence of Omicron. “Four in 10 adults say they are becoming more worried about the pandemic over the past few days, almost doubling (20-point increase) the response to the same question a month ago,” Abacus reported on Tuesday.
The anxiety has landed with accompanying gloom about the future. A full 28 per cent of Canadians now believe the worst of COVID-19 is still to come; roughly the same (26 per cent) reported to Abacus that they thought the worst of the pandemic was over. “This is more pessimism about the future of the pandemic than since May 2021,” the polling report states.
EKOS polling is unearthing the same disturbing trends. EKOS president Frank Graves posted some of his research this week on Twitter, showing that COVID-19’s toll is depression, loneliness and lack of optimism over the long haul.
The World Health Organization is calling for “calm” and “rational” response to Omicron, and it was striking to watch politicians and public health officials trying this week to anticipate the mental health consequences of this latest turn in the long COVID-19 saga.
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, maybe the politician who has been most damaged through the pandemic, addressed the mood problem directly when he spoke late on Monday.
“While this news is, I know, frustrating for us all, Omicron should not cause people to despair,” Kenney said at a news conference.
South of the border, U.S. President Joe Biden was hitting the same note in his Monday briefing on Omicron.
“First, this variant is a cause for concern, not a cause for panic,” Biden said. “We’ll fight this variant with scientific and knowledgeable actions and speed, not chaos and confusion.”
In Canada, the federal government waited until later Tuesday afternoon to give its full update on the Omicron situation, tightening testing rules for travellers and banning entry for anyone who has travelled through Nigeria, Malawi and Egypt.
Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos also floated the possibility that travel rules could change quickly and said that some thought is being given now to timing of when Canadians may need booster shots.
It wasn’t the most upbeat of news conferences, but Duclos tried to sprinkle his grim warnings with talk of hope and confidence about getting through “this” – whatever “this” turns out to be. “We will go through this uncertainty in the best possible manner,” Duclos said.
The federal government has been monitoring the social and psychological fallout of COVID-19 through a special behavioural science unit since the pandemic began.
Its tracking has shown that the government has only limited ability to alter the mood or outlook of the public – that trust in assurances from public officials has declined steadily over the pandemic. So it isn’t clear just how much Canadians will listen to any reassurances or calls for calm from the elected class, especially as more polls show that nerves are shot.
David Coletto, head of Abacus research, says this newest wave of pandemic-related anxiety means that politicians just have to double down on transparency. “Leaders need to demonstrate they are monitoring the situation and have a plan that will be executed when certain things happen. Being perceived to be in control is critical,” he said.
“The public has been on a roller-coaster. Every time their hope for an end to the pandemic grows, something else happens that increases anxiety and uncertainty. Being clear on what the government is doing and will do if certain thresholds are met can help.”
In the Commons on Monday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke spiritedly about how the government would continue to “have Canadians’ backs,” no matter how this new variant lands. He might need a new line: Omicron isn’t hitting people in the back yet – but it is getting into their heads.
Susan Delacourt is a National Affairs writer.