Canada has always been a bit of a beacon, albeit outshone by brighter lights.
Now, Canada is destined to become more of a sanctuary than ever before. And anywhere else.
Never mind the appeal of American enterprise. Forget Sweden’s progressive egalitarianism, French idealism, India’s culture and China’s ambition.
As these countries grow increasingly grim, their shining lights fall dim. The world is changing and the planet is degrading.
We used to say, in our self-aggrandizing way - before we became endlessly self-critical – that “The world needs more Canada.” In truth, there is not enough to go around.
And so more of the world will come to Canada in the years to come. Not by choice, but by default as others falter.
This is not a tribute column in praise of Canada. But as we grow more introspective, and the world more intolerant, we seem more attractive than ever to outsiders.
Let us count the ways, for as other countries fall into decline, the number of newcomers will only grow.
Living abroad for 11 years among American expatriates (who tend to be more outward looking), I could not see or foresee the U.S. unravelling as I do now. This week, the Atlantic published a long exposÈ about the decline of democracy in that country by Barton Gellman (the Washington Post’s Jerusalem correspondent when I was based there for the Toronto Star).
It is depressing reading - not just because of what it tells us about the past but what it foretells about the future unravelling of electioneering. Gellman explains why Donald Trump is on track to reclaim the presidency not through the theft or insurrection attempted this year, but thanks to the magic of gerrymandering and certifying elections along party lines in years to come.
As a Canadian political reporter, gerrymandering was always foreign to me – for our constituencies are updated by independent quasi-judicial panels that resist naked partisanship. But we have all been witness to the insidious redrawing of America’s electoral map to guarantee perpetual re-election of partisans, while rewriting voting rights so as to exclude minority groups.
Against the backdrop of voting rights and the right to bear arms – not to mention self-defence when shooting unarmed people - our neighbours are also struggling with the right to life and punishment by death. It is hard for Canadians to fathom the obsession with abortion in the Supreme Court, and the indifference to execution by the same distinguished jurists.
Political differences between Americans and Canadians are nothing new – the signs at our border crossings have long reminded visitors from the U.S. to leave their guns behind, and our boasts about medicare border on cliché. But the bitter culture wars in the U.S. reveal a political polarization within that country that may presage an influx into our country by Americans who cannot live with Trump redux re-elected.
And then there is the matter of masking and vaccinating in the time of COVID. The problem is not unique to America, but the contrasts along the border are unparalleled when you do the math: Neighbouring Michigan has a mere 10 million people compared to Ontario’s nearly 15 million, yet they’ve had 1.5 million cases to our 624,000; and 26,000 deaths to our 10,000.
Which brings us to the rest of the world: Protests in Austria and Germany over COVID constraints amid low vaccination rates; the rise of right-wing, anti-immigrant parties across Europe; and the decline of tolerance in Scandinavian countries that were once models of progressive politics, if not pluralism.
What makes Canadian political culture different is that our right-wingers are (for the most part) unlike their right-wingers; and our fringe right-wingers remain largely unliked by voters. Pluralism and diversity remain the ethos of mainstream Canadian politics, despite occasional lapses (the notorious “barbaric cultural practices” hotline dreamed up years ago by the Conservatives but long since denounced; and Quebec’s restrictions on religious garb, arguably driven by secularism not racism - though that does not diminish the discrimination).
Across Asia and Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, the decline of democracy, the rise in criminality and the persistence of poverty will drive outward migration as in the past. The difference is that the usual destinations are becoming less desirable - not just America but much of Europe - leaving Canada as everyone’s last chance.
A chill wind is blowing. Global warming is heating up, democracy is in decline and intolerance is on the rise. This is the calm before the storm that will, over time, make Canada’s safe harbour stand out even more. Political refugees, economic migrants, climate wanderers and those aspiring for a better life will keep coming – more than ever before.
Compared to what they are leaving behind, the Canada they come to will not seem a paradise – we are too cold, too complicated, too conflicted, too complacent for that. They will find a country wrestling with its past, but also mindful of its present-day possibilities in a world facing a daunting future.
Martin Regg Cohn is a National Affairs columnist.