By the time we got to the end of the second wave of the pandemic, about half of Canadian workers had felt the adverse effects of COVID-19 on their jobs.
Fewer hours, temporary layoffs, reassignments and outright job losses had scarred the resumés of just under 50 per cent of workers by the end of December, according to a new survey shared with the Star by the Environics Institute for Survey Research.
And of course, those people were disproportionately low income, young and racialized. That’s no surprise to anyone observing the harrowing effects of closures, disruption and pandemic restrictions, but it’s more important than ever to understand.
As political leaders and public health officials contemplate a reopening of the economy, it has already become a haphazard and vague process that is begging for some strategy. Ensuring that the people who have paid the steepest price for the pandemic closures are top of mind would be a good start.
“Every pre-existing inequality in Canada seems to be exacerbated” in the pandemic, says Andrew Parkin, the executive director of the institute. “It’s not a question of flicking the switch and saying we’re open again, because the people who were already a step behind are now two steps behind.”
His survey of 5,400 people in December shows that for those earning $30,000 a year or less, 50 per cent experienced reduced hours, unemployment or both. But for people earning more than $150,000 a year, just 24 per cent had their jobs hurt by the pandemic.
Seasonal workers were far more likely than permanent employees to see hours or jobs lost. Part-time workers, especially those in sales and services, were far harder hit than other sectors of the workforce.
Recent immigrants were far more likely to have suffered on the job front than those who have been here a while. Racialized workers were also on the sharp end of the stick. The worst outcomes were among Indigenous workers and people living with disabilities.
There was a saving grace: government benefits took the edge off for many, many people. More than half of households with income under $30,000 a year received at least one of six major benefits – compared to 32 per cent of households making more than $150,000. Parents of young children also benefited.
And the recipients told the survey that the benefits were generally quite helpful, especially the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit.
But as we reopen, this is where the recovery gets tricky. The government benefits that cushioned the blow of the closures are melting away. They’re being replaced by a federal hiring subsidy, some tax incentives to stay in the workforce, and more traditional social safety tools.
Beyond government supports, however, there’s very little consideration given to making sure reopening plans take into account the groups of people who have already been left behind repeatedly. And that’s worrying for our economy writ large.
Young people, for example, are the last to get the vaccine but the first to get laid off, and are more likely to have incomes too low to tide them over to another day. They’re also more likely to pay a price over the course of their careers for having patches of unemployment or rocky employment on their resumes.
At an economywide level, we are shooting ourselves in the foot if we don’t prioritize them and other groups of precariously employed workers in our reopening plans.
“We are in the sharpest and most unequal economic cycle in our lifetime,” Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech recently.
It’s telling that he needs to bring that up. He argues that marginalizing certain groups of workers doesn’t just penalize them but sinks the economy as a whole – a costly missed opportunity.
Instead, he argues for a “virtuous circle” that a complete recovery of the economy would bring. Putting everyone back to work in a productive way would mean vibrant consumers, good jobs and plenty of opportunities for everyone, especially those low-wage workers, women, youth and racialized workers who were hit extra-hard by the pandemic.
Macklem says monetary policy will support that kind of complete recovery while also using its traditional tools to fight inflation. But his power only goes so far, and interest rates are a notoriously blunt instrument.
So even if it makes sense at a macroeconomic level to ensure the recovery repairs the inequalities provoked by pandemic, it won’t necessarily make sense within individual workplaces.
That’s where some broad thinking is required among those who are putting together plans for how to roll out vaccines and open up the economy again – the premiers, the politicians and the public health authorities.
Canada’s chief public health officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, laid out some tentative guidelines for the reopening on Friday, saying that when 75 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated, some indoor gatherings and a return to class for students could be considered safe.
But so far, there’s not much consideration of work and the wherewithal of those people who have been hardest hit by the pandemic recession. It’s not an auspicious start for a virtuous circle.
Heather Scoffield is a National Affairs writer.