It’s not often that a Canadian foreign affairs minister says anything important. But Chrystia Freeland did Wednesday when she told Americans point blank their days of global hegemony are numbered and they would be wise to keep the allies they have.
“You may feel today that your size allows you to go mano-a-mano with your traditional adversaries and be guaranteed to win,” Freeland told a friendly audience at the Foreign Policy forum in Washington.
“But if history tells us one thing, it is that no one nation’s preeminence is eternal.”
She noted in particular China’s rise as an economic power.
Freeland’s message will not go down well with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has vowed to “make America great again.” It may not go well with Americans in general.
The foreign affairs minister made her point in a wide-ranging speech that articulated her view of world history since 1945.
It’s a rosy view, one she has given before. It downplays the role American self-interest played in establishing the post-Second World War order and glosses over the corrosive effects of what used to be called U.S. imperialism.
But it is essentially correct in its description of how America and its allies created international institutions and rules designed to increase trade and encourage global capitalism.
In the early years, these rules unambiguously favoured the U.S. and its multinational corporations. The International Monetary Fund, for instance, was used to impose fiscal discipline on developing nations and force them to adopt policies that benefited foreign capital. Freeland didn’t talk about that.
But the postwar order did have rules. And as long as the U.S. played the lead role in setting these rules, it was happy to follow them.
When the Cold War ended, countries that had been ideological enemies of U.S. capitalism, such as China and Russia, joined the rules-based order – and enriched themselves by doing so.
China in particular demonstrated that a liberal, market-based economy could thrive in an authoritarian, undemocratic state.
Meanwhile, in advanced countries such as the U.S., a reaction to globalization was growing among those who had been left behind.
Freeland didn’t mention Trump’s name, but she clearly had him in mind when she talked of the false lure of those who would do away with the postwar order.
My own view is Freeland is too quick to equate trade protectionism with authoritarianism. Canada’s supply management system in dairy products is protectionist. Yet Canada is not an authoritarian state.
Conversely, China’s embrace of freer trade has not lessened the dominance of its ruling Communist party.
But she’s right when she says adherence to a rules-based order can sometimes discourage big countries from bullying the small. And she’s right when she says the time of Western preeminence is fast coming to an end.
“How shall we behave in a world we no longer dominate?” she asked Wednesday. Her answer: Cement the rules in place before the other guys take over.
Americans are not likely to be pleased by Freeland’s reminder that their time in the sun is drawing to a close. They pride themselves on what they call their exceptionalism.
Nor are Congressional Republicans likely to rise up and demand that Trump withdraw the punitive tariffs he has levied against Canadian steel and aluminum.
The president is popular among Republicans. Legislators who dare to cross him are in danger of being punished politically by the voters. Some have been punished already.
Still, Canada’s foreign affairs minister has articulated a truth that Americans would be wise to consider: Don’t screw your friends. You might need them sometime.
Thomas Walkom is a Toronto-based columnist covering politics.