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When war games take on real meaning

The recent attacks and provocations by North Korea against South Korea seem to come out of thin air. But it may be more a case of a ventriloquist trying to send a message to the U.S.

The recent attacks and provocations by North Korea against South Korea seem to come out of thin air. But it may be more a case of a ventriloquist trying to send a message to the U.S.

As is the case in many geopolitical situations, the old saying “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” may hold true here.

China recently bailed out a financially strapped United States. In return, it undoubtedly would like a favour.

According to an article this month by Erik Sofge in Popular Mechanics, “ever since 1949, when nationalist forces retreated to Taiwan following the Communist victory in the Chinese Civil War, Beijing has regarded the island as a renegade province of the People’s Republic.” The article goes on to describe at length a war games scenario the U.S. military recently played out wherein China attacked Taiwan — but this was used as a ruse to draw out U.S. forces, which were then hammered. China takes Taiwan as the U.S. limps home.

The article talks about a potential confrontation in 2015. But what if their grim scenario is being played out now, in a minor way, through North Korean belligerence?

Like a ventriloquist, China could be flapping the lips of Korea. But why?

With a population of some 1.3 billion, China needs America’s voracious consumerism. According to an email circulating the web, every week the Emma Maersk containership, which holds some 15,000 containers or sea cans, delivers a full load to the U.S. , unloads in two hours and returns to China, empty. That in itself describes the collapsing balance of trade — but it also illustrates how dependent China is on America’s shopaholic society.

Tragically, the fact that we North Americans buy most of our stuff from China has allowed that overpopulated and formerly poor state, fourth largest in the world in geographic size, the financial power to build up a massive military. Now China has an impressive array of high-tech, very advanced equipment. As well, China now boasts telecom, satellite and missile capabilities — and hackers — on the leading edge today.

On the other hand, North Korea, with a population of some 22 million, can hardly be considered a heavy hitter in terms of global geopolitics, except that its leader Kim Jong-Il runs an inscrutable, brutal, nuclear capable dictatorship where, according to an individual that helps North Korea defectors “public executions are family entertainment.” (Harper’s Magazine July 2010, The System of Defecting)

Kim Jong-Il’s government in North Korea has cultivated every square inch of land, leading to agricultural devastation. Masses of North Koreans regularly starve to death. The Harper’s article cites a reference that the last time Koreans tasted beef to eat was when some country donated its unsalable volume of beef after a mad cow scare.

But North Korea wants South Korea back. Just like China would like Taiwan.

Maybe the two quietly working together can get something for each other.

As described in the war games scenario in Popular Mechanics, China draws the American aircraft carriers in the region close to conflict, then knocks out communications satellites (it has recently demonstrated remarkable manoeuvrability with its orbiting space satellites). It then sends a flurry of outdated planes retrofitted to be unmanned drones. Below the sea, a set of small, virtually undetectable yet highly manoeuvrable “kilo-class” submarines lurk, loaded with supersonic anti-ship Russian missiles, waiting to fire at the American aircraft carriers.

In the Popular Mechanics scenario, within a few hours, the Pacific resources of the U.S. Navy are crippled — air base runways at Kadena blown out; aircraft carriers critically damaged. The powerful U.S. air force doesn’t have the range without the aircraft carriers.

Taiwan cannot be protected by the U.S. China stops the assault because it never wanted a war with the U.S. It just wanted Taiwan.

But in light of recent provocations by North Korea, to me it looks like maybe China wants to accomplish the same thing, using a different hand. U.S. forces are stretched between Afghanistan and Iraq. But even if they were not, with the Pacific being such a broad and open field where fighter jets can only be effective from an aircraft carrier, taking out the American air superiority would not be difficult. China could step in initially to defend Taiwan from possible North Korean aggression ... and then just forget to leave. It could be 1939 all over again — just on a different front.

Maybe it’s just a paper nightmare. But with the U.S. so weakened economically and so stretched militarily, we have to look again at the world.

Russia is also flexing her muscles — what if she also wants something back? Alaska, perhaps. The place that Col. Mitchell defined in the Second World War as “He who rules Alaska rules the world.”

This might not come under the aegis of aggression — but rather ‘help.’ Russian forces might come to Alaska to help make North Korea toe the line. And then forget to leave.

Life is full of surprises.

Michelle Stirling-Anosh is a Ponoka-based freelance columnist.