EDMONTON — It has been four decades since two conservative political foes have faced off like this in the Alberta legislature.
It may still seem like a David-versus-Goliath scenario, since the Progressive Conservative government holds 68 of 83 seats and the newly minted Wildrose Alliance has just three.
But the new party had a 13-point lead in a poll taken just before Christmas and appears to have forced Premier Ed Stelmach into damage-control mode after two of his elected members crossed the floor earlier this year.
There hasn’t been a similar scenario since Peter Lougheed brought the Tories to power in 1971 by defeating the long-governing, right-leaning Social Credit Party.
Stelmach initially tried to avoid giving credibility to the Wildrose Alliance when the party won a byelection last year in a Calgary riding the Tories had held since the 1970s.
That has changed in the lead-up to this session, which begins Thursday with a speech from the throne.
Stelmach, in a recent news conference, portrayed the upstarts as a radical party compared with his Tories.
“We are not a government of extremes,” Stelmach said.
“I recognize ... that it was time for some changes and we’ve made them,” he said. “We will continue to make the required changes that Albertans have been telling us we need to make to lead us out of the worst recession in many, many years.”
The budget will be the first big test for his government in this session. And there isn’t much room for plums that might soften up voters before the next general election, which will likely be held in 2012.
The premier is already warning Albertans to expect a “tough” budget next Tuesday that will include a $2-billion “fiscal correction” to reduce the size of the record deficit accumulated last year. The government has promised to “be back in the black in three years.”
Wildrose hasn’t exactly been calling for more spending.
The party and its new leader Danielle Smith are skeptical of expensive projects designed to curb global warming, including the $2 billion Alberta plans to spend on projects to gather carbon emissions and pump them underground.
Smith wants to scale back $23 billion worth of building plans that the Tories have scheduled over three years to stimulate Alberta’s economy. She said there’s no point building hospitals when there’s not enough money to hire nurses to take care of the patients.
“What’s the rush? Why not take the time to build it out over five years and be able to avoid racking up deficits and drawing from our savings accounts,” she said.
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is also calling for delayed project spending, no more carbon-capture spending, a five per cent spending cut, a five per cent salary reduction for bureaucrats and the reversal of a 30 per cent pay increase that elected members got last spring.
“We’ve run the numbers and it’s clear that unless oil and gas prices rocket up, the government could run between a $4-billion and $6.8-billion deficit next year,” said federation spokesman Scott Hennig.
He said the Tory government made similar “back in black” promises in the 1990s and it simply didn’t happen.
While the Wildrose has been attracting much attention, the Liberals hold Official Opposition status in the house with nine seats. The New Democrats hold two seats behind the Wildrose. There is also one Independent.
NDP Leader Brian Mason said a long list of unpopular moves and policy decisions has created a groundswell of resentment against the Stelmach government.
“The allocation of seats in the legislature no longer corresponds to public opinion,” said Mason. “There’s real pressure on the government to stop wreaking havoc on our health care system and put beds back into service.”
Liberal Leader David Swann’s party has been overhauling some of its policies in response to Albertans growing interest in the Wildrose Alliance. He said a more industry-friendly energy policy was needed.
“I think we’ve not had the kind of constructive relationship that we want with the major economic driver in the province,” said Swann, who says he wants to position the Liberals in “the sensible centre” of the political spectrum.
A wild card is whether Independent Guy Boutilier, a disaffected Tory and former cabinet minister, might jump to the Wildrose, which would give it official party status in the assembly. Stelmach turfed Boutilier after he publicly criticized his party’s decision to delay building a long-term care facility in his riding.
Boutilier recently had dinner with Smith.
“I’m getting to know the leader of the Wildrose Party,” Boutilier said. “I’m encouraged by the emphasis she places on the MLAs’ jobs in their constituencies.”
Stelmach has been trying to put on new face on his government. He shuffled his cabinet early in the new year and promptly reversed some unpopular policy decisions. He has cancelled plans to close hundreds of hospital beds, signalled an end to a bitter royalty feud with the energy sector and fired an agriculture minister who was upsetting farmers.
The premier has blamed his party’s poor showing in the polls on the recession and bad government communications, so he has put new faces in his communications ranks.
At least one political pundit said all the changes may not be enough to pull the Conservatives out of a tailspin.
David Taras, a political analyst at the University of Calgary, said it’s vital for Stelmach to make smart political moves that improve his image in advance of the next election.
If not, he said Alberta’s Tory party will “crash” and “Stelmach will take the whole party with him.”
Smith said she expects the spring sitting will focus a lot on leadership — hers and the premier’s.
She has been getting a lot of national media attention and it’s helping boost her profile. She was recently featured with comedian Rick Mercer on a “date” at the West Edmonton Mall, where she was kissed by a seal before the pair braved the Mindbender roller-coaster.
The new Wildrose leader won’t actually be in the assembly because she doesn’t hold a seat. She’ll quarterback from behind the scenes and talk to journalists in the hallways of the legislature.
“I think that our three MLAs are going to pack a big punch,” predicted Smith.
“We know we have an immense amount of work ahead of us over the next two years to earn the trust of Albertans ... to demonstrate how a Wildrose government would be different.”
The politically charged spring sitting is expected to end in early June.