TORONTO — The predictions are in and they’re not pretty.
Sports Illustrated is forecasting that the Toronto Blue Jays will be last in the American League East at 77-85. ESPN weighs in with a prediction of 79-83 and a fourth-place finish. A trio of Yahoo! Sports baseball writers all expect a fourth-place result and sub-.500 record.
It makes for plenty of bulletin board material for a young squad that is itching to become a contender in one of the toughest divisions in baseball.
“We’re a competitive group,” new manager John Farrell said Thursday on the eve of opening day. “We went through six weeks of spring training to come north and win, not to be prepared to be an opponent for someone else.”
Toronto surprised many baseball observers last year by posting an 85-77 mark in a rebuilding campaign, good for fourth place in the division. The Jays have several top prospects and many of their young players seem to be on the cusp of becoming solid major leaguers.
What’s unclear is how long it will take for Toronto to make its long-awaited return to contender status. The team still has a loyal base of fans but many have become discouraged at the long run of mediocrity since the Jays last won the World Series in 1993.
Toronto kicks off its regular season today against the Minnesota Twins (Rogers Sportsnet, 5 p.m.) at Rogers Centre. The atmosphere should be electric in what will likely be the lone sellout of the season.
Fans have always packed the downtown stadium for opening day but attendance levels have usually dropped off significantly after that. Taking a run at the contenders in the A.L. East would change that and bring some atmosphere back to the park.
“We’re hopefully in the early stages of regaining that same environment here whether that’s this year or sometime in the future,” Farrell said. “We’re hopeful to change the mindset of a hockey town going back into a baseball town.”
Ricky Romero (14-9 in 2010) will get the start for the Jays against Carl Pavano of the Twins (17-11 last year). With the departure of Shaun Marcum in a trade with Milwaukee in the off-season, Romero will front a new-look rotation that is young but has plenty of potential.
“We’re a tight group and we feel like nothing is going to tear us apart,” Romero said. “We carry that chip on our shoulder right now and we’re going to carry it all year.”
The bullpen also looks different with closer Kevin Gregg and Scott Downs no longer with the team. Frank Francisco is expected to close games when he returns from injury, with Jon Rauch likely getting the ball at crunch time until then.
The Jays relied on the long ball for a good chunk of their offence last season, with home run king Jose Bautista leading the way. General manager Alex Anthopoulos rewarded him with a long-term contract in the off-season so the pressure will be high for another big year. The speedy Rajai Davis replaces Vernon Wells in centre field and Adam Lind will take over from Lyle Overbay at first base. John Buck is also gone, so rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia will get an opportunity behind the plate.
The Toronto lineup should still have some pop but it will be tough to match last year’s major-league leading total of 257 homers.
“We can’t really think of the production that left,” Bautista said.
“We just have to go out there and each person individually has to focus on whatever is going to make them productive and successful and hopefully everything gets taken care of.”
Farrell will try to implement more of an up-tempo style that he hopes will keep the opposition guessing. Whether it takes the rebuilding Blue Jays any higher in the A.L. East standings is up in the air.
“We’re still going to have to play to the strengths of our roster,” Farrell said. “We’re not a base-stealing team top to bottom, but I think we can still be more opportunistic than we might have been in the past.”