OTTAWA — The latest provincial outlook from the Bank of Montreal is a stark reminder that Canada has an entrenched two-speed economy.
The bank predicts the four western provinces, led by Alberta and Saskatchewan, will be the only ones to record above two per cent growth this year.
All the rest are below what the Bank of Canada considers the potential growth rate for the Canadian economy.
The West will also lead the nation in growth next year, according to the bank, although oil-rich Newfoundland will be joining that select group.
BMO economist Douglas Porter says resources are the major reason for the superior prospects of the western provinces.
After a five per cent growth rate last year, Alberta’s economic growth will slow this year to 3.4 per cent, but still lead the country, followed by Saskatchewan at 2.9 per cent.
Manitoba is likely to grow by 2.6 per cent and British Columbia by 2.3 per cent.
Meanwhile, provinces that depend on manufacturing continue to trail despite some improving prospects south of the border, with Ontario leading the weak-six at 1.9 per cent growth.
Other expected growth rates are Quebec, 1.6; New Brunswick, 1.5; Nova Scotia 1.8; Prince Edward Island, 1.4, and Newfoundland and Labrador one per cent.
For the country as a whole, the bank says the economy will expand by two per cent this year, somewhat below the Bank of Canada’s 2.4 per cent forecast.