I have to say that I believe that the constant expectations for economies to show growth is not possible. Yet the economists still use the annual growth in an economy as a benchmark.
So, what they don’t understand, in my opinion, is that economies, like populations of animals or any biological species, cannot continue to rise and rise. They reach a “carrying capacity,” after which temporary fluctuations, up or down, are naturally responded to, via an increase in birth rate or death rate ... but any sudden increase is usually followed by a rapid downturn.
The human population of the Earth is rapidly approaching 10 billion. Any biologist would say this is touching upon our planet’s “carrying capacity,” especially as we do not just depend upon food resources (without the development of agriculture, selective breeding and antibiotics our species would never have risen to these numbers), but are also draining the planet’s fossil fuels.
We have political unrest, religious discontent, natural evolutionary forces and together we, as a species, are very vulnerable. Perhaps what makes us most vulnerable is the “meme” or idea that we are in some way in charge. We are not.
Economics will eventually find that the biological model is the only realistic one.
If you discover a new invention or resource, the economy grows quickly. Just the same as if a food supply is introduced to a population of microbes. They grow exponentially. But then they crash.
World economies are no different. And as the world is presently so fragmented in terms of population, resources, religious beliefs and ethnic geography, we will be very lucky to ever reach the stage of having a viable world economy.
But it is slightly possible, provided the politicians and religious leaders unite and dissolve their differences.
David Mathias
Red Deer