OTTAWA — Marc Garneau dropped out of the federal Liberal leadership race on Wednesday and threw his support to front-runner Justin Trudeau, declaring the outcome “a fait accompli.”
The Montreal MP’s decision followed an internal poll conducted by his campaign last week, which Garneau said showed Trudeau has the backing of 72 per cent of Liberal members and supporters.
Garneau said he was a “solid second” with 15 per cent, followed by Vancouver MP Joyce Murray with just over 7 per cent and former Toronto MP Martha Hall Findlay with just over 5 per cent.
“I have done my numbers. I cannot mathematically — and I’m a person who believes in math — I cannot mathematically win,” Garneau told a news conference.
“I’m not into denial. The numbers indicate very clearly that Justin is the overwhelming favourite.”
However, Murray said she puts no stock in Garneau’s survey, the methodology of which her camp finds highly suspect. She said it won’t influence her decision to continue her campaign, which has enjoyed a late burst of momentum.
“I’m not going to give it any credit,” Murray said in an interview.
“I happen to completely disagree with his assessment that there’s only one possible outcome to this race. ... It’s not a done deal.”
Garneau’s automated phone poll asked 6,000 Liberal supporters and members to indicate whether they favoured Garneau, Trudeau, Hall Findlay or Murray, in that order and without mentioning the other four contenders.
It was a not a survey of registered voters, the Murray camp noted, even though the outcome will depend on which campaign is best able to get supporters to register and then actually cast ballots during the week of April 6.
Murray’s camp is hopeful her supporters — urged on by a host of grassroots and online advocacy groups who back her environmental credentials and her plan for electoral co-operation among progressive parties — are more committed than average.
Less than a third of the 294,000 party members and supporters have so far registered to vote. Worried that some 100,000 people who didn’t provide email addresses — the bulk of whom are Trudeau supporters — will be disenfranchised, the front-runner is seeking a one-week extension of Thursday’s registration deadline.
The Murray, Hall Findlay and Martin Cauchon campaigns oppose an extension.
Garneau’s survey also didn’t take into account the fact that the results will be weighted to give each riding equal clout, whether they have 1,000 registered voters or 100. Without knowing the distribution of each candidate’s support, it’s impossible to accurately predict the outcome — although no one disputes Trudeau is in the lead.
“For those talking about polls and numbers: we’re not naive, and we’re fully aware of the challenge,” Hall Findlay said in a statement.
However, she added: “There are some ridings with thousands of registered voters — but each one of those ridings is worth 100 points. There are also a large number of ridings with very few, many with fewer than 50. Each one of those ridings is also worth 100 points. We have run a truly national campaign, and have approached it very strategically.
Murray said she was surprised by Garneau’s decision to endorse Trudeau, given that he has repeatedly said a coronation is not in the party’s best interests and has accused the front-runner of lacking policy depth, experience and leadership credentials.
Garneau insisted Wednesday that his criticism of Trudeau was “constructive,” that the front-runner “has risen to the occasion” and proven an unmatched ability to rally people to the party.
“One must render unto Caesar that which is due to Caesar,” he said, adding that he intends to remain a “loyal soldier” under the new leader.
Garneau’s departure leaves seven candidates in the running: Trudeau, Murray, Hall Findlay, David Bertschi, Martin Cauchon, Deborah Coyne and Karen McCrimmon.
Garneau, an MP since 2008, kicked off his campaign last November, stressing the economy as his key issue.
Voting for the Liberal leadership will be conducted online and by phone early next month, with the winner to be announced on April 14.