WASHINGTON — Three new polls show Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum, coming off a stunning sweep of three caucus states last week, has pulled even with Mitt Romney, the presumed front-runner in the race to challenge President Barack Obama in November.
The shift in the polls for the former Pennsylvania senator continues the startling swings in a contest that has been notable for its instability. It also comes during a lull in state-by-state voting and in the debates that have kept candidates in the public eye.
Republican voters have been unable to coalesce around one candidate as both the most electable against Obama and sufficiently conservative to win strong backing from the party’s tea party and evangelical Christian base voters. Santorum claims he is the leading conservative in the race, while Romney has been pitching himself to conservative voters who have doubts about his former, more moderate, positions on key social issues such as abortion.
A saving grace, perhaps, for Romney is that his level of support in the polls has held roughly steady while a series of challengers, Santorum being the most recent, have enjoyed a tie with or lead over the former Massachusetts governor.
Romney still holds a significant lead in the number of delegates accrued in primaries and caucuses already held in 10 U.S. states, and his financial advantage is overwhelming going into the states that are still to vote.
A New York Times/CBS News poll released Tuesday showed Santorum with 30 per cent support among Republican voters, three points ahead of Romney but within the survey’s margin of error.
The new poll essentially mirrors results in surveys by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and the Gallup organization.
The Pew results released Monday showed Santorum two points up with 30 per cent support. Gallup showed Romney maintaining a two-point lead with 32 per cent support. Both results were within the surveys’ margins of error.
Both Pew and Gallup showed Santorum shooting up 14 points from a month ago.
Santorum’s new lustre among Republicans could be particularly worrying for Romney with the approach of the Feb. 28 primary in the state of Michigan. Romney’s father was governor of the state and head of the now defunct American Motors Corp. automaker there before making a failed run for the presidency in 1968.
The younger Romney grew up in Michigan and had been seen as likely to walk away with the primary there. But a poll released Monday by Public Policy Polling showed Santorum at 39 per cent to 24 per cent for Romney in Michigan.
The Michigan primary, which takes place the same day as one in Arizona, could show whether Santorum can continue his challenge of Romney or drift back in the pack, as has happened to former speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich. Gingrich’s surprise win in South Carolina last month put him in front of Romney in the polls, but that lasted only until Romney produced an overwhelming victory in Florida.
The fourth Republican still in the race, libertarian Texas Rep. Ron Paul, has mainly held steady in third or fourth place, with a steadfast group of supporters backing his anti-war, small-government, low-tax platform.