KANDAHAR, Afghanistan — Intensive operations against the Taliban over the last several months have decimated the enemy’s chances of mounting an effective counter-attack during next year’s fighting season, says NATO’s outgoing commander in southern Afghanistan.
British Brig.-Gen. Nick Carter pointed to a major offensive launched this summer in Kandahar, in which Canadian troops have played a key role, as having stripped the insurgency of both strategic ground and resources.
Dubbed “Hamkari,” the Dari word for co-operation, the operation recently entered its third phase, targeting insurgent strongholds in the districts of Zhari and Panjwaii, where most of Canada’s combat troops are based.
Both districts are seen as important staging areas for Taliban attacks into Kandahar city.
Along with conducting a number of clearing operations since August, the Canadian military has scattered checkpoints across Panjwaii, severely limiting the Taliban’s access to roads into the city.
The heightened security presence, coupled with fewer strongholds, has taken a toll on the insurgency’s ability to sustain itself, Carter said during a recent briefing.
The price of improvised explosive device components — most notably ammonium nitrate, the central ingredient in homemade explosives — has skyrocketed over the last four months, he added. Plus, revenues from poppy crops are declining, leaving insurgent commanders without the resources to supply their fighters with weapons.
“Their resources are a lot less than they’ve ever been before,” Carter said. “It’s going to be very difficult, I think, for them to be able to go back on the offensive on the same scale they might have done in previous years.”
On Tuesday, Carter wrapped up his one-year tenure as commander of NATO forces in southern Afghanistan, which include Canada’s contingent of 2,800 soldiers.
He oversaw a massive influx of U.S. troops into Kandahar following President Barack Obama’s decision to allocate 30,000 additional soldiers to the war in Afghanistan, now entering its tenth year.
The Canadian commander, Brig. Gen. Dean Milner, will now be answerable to U.S. Maj. Gen. James Terry, who takes over from Carter.
In a brief statement following a handover ceremony at Kandahar Airfield, Terry acknowledged Carter’s successes, but offered little indication what his plans are for the coming months. “Our challenge is to sustain that progress and move to the future,” he said.
Across the coalition, NATO commanders, including Milner, have been repeating the mantra that significant gains have been made against the Taliban in recent months.
Canada is on track to have fewer deaths this year, and officers in the field are reporting fewer IEDs in areas where Canadian soldiers have established a presence.
There have been select reports of elders returning to villages in Panjwaii after having fled at the sight of Canadian troops, fearing getting caught in fighting.
Carter indicated that the effort to consolidate such gains will involve fewer kinetic operations, and focus instead on improving district-level governance and empowering various groups within the population.
The plan for the winter is “to ensure the population increasingly refutes the insurgency and feels its government is supporting it,” Carter said.
“Ultimately, it is the population which provides the oxygen in which your big dogs have got the space to manoeuvre ... if they aren’t going to support (insurgents), then it is going to be very difficult for them to find that space.”
Carter also warned against drawing hasty conclusions about the progress being claimed by NATO. He recommended “waiting to take a final view until you look at the seasons.”
“June and July are always the busiest months in terms of the insurgency,” Carter said. “Comparisons being made next June and July with last June and July will be a sure indicator whether this opportunity has been realized.”